Frequently asked questions
What is expected points (xPts)?
Expected points (xPts) is the number of points a team would earn on average given the quality of chances created and conceded. It is computed with a two-team Poisson model on match xG, where xPts = 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). Comparing actual points to xPts shows whether a team is over- or under-performing.
Which World Cup 2026 team has been the unluckiest?
Switzerland have been the unluckiest team so far, taking 1 point from 2.70 expected points (a Δ of -1.70). On the balance of chances created and conceded, they deserved more.
Which teams are overperforming their xG at the World Cup 2026?
Australia are the biggest overperformers so far, banking 3 points on just 1.24 expected points (Δ +1.76) — a mix of clinical finishing and a little fortune.
What is the Luck Quadrant?
The Luck Quadrant plots finishing (goals minus expected goals) against defensive luck (expected goals against minus goals against), with the crosshair at the field average. Teams in the top-right are riding their luck; teams in the bottom-left deserved better than their results.
What is expected goals (xG)?
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of the chances a team creates: every shot is worth between 0 and 1 goals based on how likely it was to be scored, and a team's xG is the sum of those values.
Where does the World Cup 2026 xG data come from?
Goals and expected goals (xG, xGA) are sourced from public match pages for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Expected points are derived from those figures with a Poisson model, and group standings follow the official group table.