Updated 16 June 2026 · matchday 1 · 16 matches played
World Cup 2026 xG Luck Table
Which teams are lucky, unlucky, overperforming, or underperforming by expected goals?
Switzerland are the unluckiest team so far — 1 point from 2.70 expected points (Δ -1.70). At the other end, Australia are the biggest overperformers, banking 3 points on just 1.24 xPts (Δ +1.76).
📈 If the table were ranked by expected points, New Zealand would drop 2 places in Group G.
Every team plotted by expected goals (xG) vs reality. Jump to unluckiest teams, overperformers, what the metrics mean, the full standings, or the match center.
Each team is plotted by finishing luck (goals − xG) against defensive luck (xGA − goals against); the crosshair is the field average. Bottom-left = deserved better, top-right = riding their luck.
Biggest overperformers and unluckiest teams
Biggest overperformers
- Australia+1.763 pts · 1.24 xPts
- Scotland+1.653 pts · 1.35 xPts
- Ivory Coast+1.273 pts · 1.73 xPts
- USA+0.963 pts · 2.04 xPts
- Qatar+0.791 pts · 0.21 xPts
Deserved better (unluckiest)
- Switzerland-1.701 pts · 2.70 xPts
- Spain-1.621 pts · 2.62 xPts
- Turkiye-1.490 pts · 1.49 xPts
- Haiti-1.350 pts · 1.35 xPts
- Uruguay-1.121 pts · 2.12 xPts
What the metrics mean
- Expected goals (xG)
- Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of the chances a team creates: every shot is worth between 0 and 1 goals based on how likely it was to be scored. A team's xG is the sum of those values — what an average team would have scored from the same chances.
- Expected goals against (xGA)
- Expected goals against (xGA) applies the same idea to the chances a team concedes. Low xGA means a team gives up few good chances; high xGA means it is being opened up regularly.
- Expected points (xPts)
- Expected points (xPts) is how many points a team would earn on average given the chances created and conceded. It is computed with a two-team Poisson model: each side's match xG is treated as a scoring rate, every scoreline is assigned a probability, and xPts = 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). Comparing actual points to xPts shows whether a team is over- or under-performing.
- Finishing (Goals − xG)
- Finishing is goals scored minus expected goals. A positive value means a team is scoring more than the quality of its chances suggests — clinical or fortunate; a negative value means it is being wasteful or unlucky in front of goal.
- Defensive luck (xGA − Goals against)
- Defensive luck is expected goals against minus goals conceded. Positive means a team concedes fewer goals than the chances it allows — good goalkeeping or fortune; negative means it is shipping more than it should.
- Δ (Points − xPts)
- Δ is actual points minus expected points. A large positive Δ marks an overperformer (clinical or lucky); a large negative Δ marks a team that has been unlucky and, on the balance of chances, deserved more.
- The Luck Quadrant
- The Luck Quadrant plots finishing (goals minus xG) against defensive luck (xGA minus goals against), with the crosshair at the field average. Teams in the top-right are riding their luck at both ends; teams in the bottom-left created and prevented more than their results show, and deserved better.
World Cup 2026 xG & expected points — FAQ
What is expected points (xPts)?
Expected points (xPts) is the number of points a team would earn on average given the quality of chances created and conceded. It is computed with a two-team Poisson model on match xG, where xPts = 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). Comparing actual points to xPts shows whether a team is over- or under-performing.
Which World Cup 2026 team has been the unluckiest?
Switzerland have been the unluckiest team so far, taking 1 point from 2.70 expected points (a Δ of -1.70). On the balance of chances created and conceded, they deserved more.
Which teams are overperforming their xG at the World Cup 2026?
Australia are the biggest overperformers so far, banking 3 points on just 1.24 expected points (Δ +1.76) — a mix of clinical finishing and a little fortune.
What is the Luck Quadrant?
The Luck Quadrant plots finishing (goals minus expected goals) against defensive luck (expected goals against minus goals against), with the crosshair at the field average. Teams in the top-right are riding their luck; teams in the bottom-left deserved better than their results.